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66 PART 2 • STRATEGY FORMULATION

Social, Cultural, Demographic, and Natural
Environment Forces
Social, cultural, demographic, and environmental changes have a major impact on virtually
all products, services, markets, and customers. Small, large, for-profit, and nonprofit
organizations in all industries are being staggered and challenged by the opportunities and
threats arising from changes in social, cultural, demographic, and environmental variables.
In every way, the United States is much different today than it was yesterday, and tomor-
row promises even greater changes.
The United States is getting older and less white. The oldest members of America’s
76 million baby boomers plan to retire in 2011, and this has lawmakers and younger
taxpayers deeply concerned about who will pay their Social Security, Medicare, and
Medicaid. Individuals age 65 and older in the United States as a percentage of the popula-
tion will rise to 18.5 percent by 2025. The five “oldest” states and five “youngest” states in
2007 are given in Table 3-4.
By 2075, the United States will have no racial or ethnic majority. This forecast is
aggravating tensions over issues such as immigration and affirmative action. Hawaii,
California, and New Mexico already have no majority race or ethnic group.
The population of the world surpassed 7.0 billion in 2010; the United States has
just over 310 million people. That leaves billions of people outside the United States
who may be interested in the products and services produced through domestic
firms. Remaining solely domestic is an increasingly risky strategy, especially as the
world population continues to grow to an estimated 8 billion in 2028 and 9 billion
in 2054.
Social, cultural, demographic, and environmental trends are shaping the way
Americans live, work, produce, and consume. New trends are creating a different type of
consumer and, consequently, a need for different products, different services, and different
strategies. There are now more American households with people living alone or with
unrelated people than there are households consisting of married couples with children.
American households are making more and more purchases online. Beer consumption in
the United States is growing at only 0.5 percent per year, whereas wine consumption is
2
growing 3.5 percent and distilled spirits consumption is growing at 2.0 percent. Beer is
still the most popular alcoholic beverage in the United States, but its market share has
dropped from 59.5 percent in its peak year of 1995 to 56.7 percent today. For a wine
company such as Gallo, this trend is an opportunity, whereas for a firm such as Adolph
Coors Brewing, this trend is an external threat.
The trend toward an older America is good news for restaurants, hotels, airlines, cruise
lines, tours, resorts, theme parks, luxury products and services, recreational vehicles, home
builders, furniture producers, computer manufacturers, travel services, pharmaceutical
firms, automakers, and funeral homes. Older Americans are especially interested in health
care, financial services, travel, crime prevention, and leisure. The world’s longest-living
people are the Japanese, with Japanese women living to 86.3 years and men living to 80.1
years on average. By 2050, the Census Bureau projects that the number of Americans age
100 and older will increase to over 834,000 from just under 100,000 centenarians in the

TABLE 3-4 The Oldest and Youngest States
by Average Age of Residents
Five Oldest States Five Youngest States
Maine Utah
Vermont Texas
West Virginia Alaska
Florida Idaho
Pennsylvania California

Source: Based on U.S. Census Bureau. Also, Ken Jackson, “State
Population Changes by Race, Ethnicity,” USA Today (May 17, 2007): 2A.