Page 315 - Sustainable Cities and Communities Design Handbook

288 Sustainable Cities and Communities Design Handbook

750
709.8 714.4
700 682.6 687.3
660.3 655.2 659.2
647.3
650
617.7
609.4
600
550
MW
500 Effective Capacity
Peak power demand
459.9
450 446.2
441.1
430.1
412.5
400 404.1
388.6
378.1
367.3 367.6
350
300
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
FIGURE 15.5 Effective capacity and peak power demand for the period 2006e15 (SM, 2015a,
2016a).

effective generating capacity of the CEB and IPPs was 714.4 MW (SM, 2015a,
2016a). Although a reserve margin of more than 50% of the peak load may
indicate a reliable power system, there are other aspects that need to be
considered. Several power plants are either nearing their retirement or have
already exceeded their normal operational lifetimes but have not been phased
out as their replacements are not ready. In addition, not all IPP plants can
be operated simultaneously and hydroelectric plants cannot be relied upon
during summer when peak loads occur because of droughts. As a result, an
effective reserve margin of 43 MW only is available to address any unforeseen
generator failure (ADB, 2014a). Even a large margin will be inadequate if a
major power plant fails unexpectedly. In the next few years, the projected
increase in peak demand combined with the expected decommissioning
of some existing generators implies that the CEB must urgently plan for
generation expansion to mitigate potential shortages in electrical supply.
Finally, end use data show that the total electricity consumption is
relatively equally distributed among the domestic, commercial, and industrial
sectors, as depicted in Fig. 15.6. This distribution contrasts noticeably with the
disparate distribution of primary energy use among these three end users
detailed in Primary Energy Requirements section. The manufacturing sector
accounts for a bigger portion of the primary energy consumption as in addition
to electricity, it consumes large amounts of fuel for its plant and machinery,
such as boilers, furnaces, and heat pumps. Households require more primary