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64     Part 1  •  SyStemS analySiS FundamentalS

              Figure 3.9                    Software Requirements                Specific Software Features
              Guidelines for evaluating
              software.                    Performance Effectiveness              Able to perform all required tasks
                                                                                  Able to perform all tasks desired
                                                                                 Well-designed display screens
                                                                                  Adequate capacity
                                            Performance Efficiency               Fast response time
                                                                                 Efficient input
                                                                                 Efficient output
                                                                                 Efficient storage of data
                                                                                 Efficient backup
                                            Ease of use                          Satisfactory user interface
                                                                                 Help menus available
                                                                                 “Read Me” files for last-minute changes
                                                                                 Flexible interface
                                                                                 Adequate feedback
                                                                                 Good error recovery
                                           Flexibility                           Options for input
                                                                                 Options for output
                                                                                 Usable with other software
                                            Quality of Documentation             Good organization
                                                                                 Adequate online tutorial
                                                                                 Website with FAQ
                                           Manufacturer Support                  Technical support hotline
                                                                                 Newsletter/email
                                                                                 Website with downloadable product updates




                                         Identifying, Forecasting, and Comparing Costs
                                         and Benefits
                                         Costs and benefits of a proposed computer system must always be considered together because
                                         they are interrelated and often interdependent. Although a systems analyst tries to propose a
                                         system that fulfills various information requirements, decisions to continue with the proposed
                                         system will be based on a cost-benefit analysis, not on information requirements. In many ways,
                                         benefits are measured by costs, which becomes apparent in the next section.

                                         Forecasting
                                         Systems analysts are required to predict certain key variables before submitting a proposal to the
                                         client. To some degree, a systems analyst will rely on a what-if analysis, such as, “What if labor
                                         costs rise only 5 percent per year for the next three years, rather than 10 percent?” The systems
                                         analyst should realize, however, that he or she cannot rely on what-if analysis for everything if
                                         the proposal is to be credible, meaningful, and valuable.
                                             A systems analyst has many forecasting models available. The main condition for choos-
                                         ing a model is the availability of historical data. If historical data are unavailable, the analyst
                                         must turn to one of the judgment methods: estimates from the sales force, surveys to estimate
                                         customer demand, Delphi studies (a consensus forecast developed independently by a group of
                                         experts through a series of iterations), creation of scenarios, or historical analogies.
                                             If historical data are available, the next differentiation between classes of techniques
                                         involves whether the forecast is conditional or unconditional. Conditional implies that there is
                                         an association among variables in the model or that such a causal relationship exists. Common
                                         methods in this group include correlation, regression, leading indicators, econometrics, and
                                         input/output models.
                                             Unconditional forecasting means the analyst isn’t required to find or identify any causal rela-
                                         tionships. Consequently, systems analysts find that these methods are low-cost, easy-to-implement
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