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ChaPter 3 • ProjeCt management 65

CONSULTING OPPORTUNITY 3.3

We’re Off to See the Wizards

Elphaba I. Menzel and Glinda K. Chenoweth are the owners of “That’s interesting,” says Glinda, “but I’ve been doing my
Emerald City Beautyscapes, a commercial landscaping company. own research. Some of our competitors have told me they let
They are trying to decide whether to write their own software, per- a company do all the work for them. The company is called
haps using Microsoft Access as a basis; adopt a COTS software Lawn Wizards. They do landscaping, but they also maintain
package such as QuickBooks Pro; or hire a service called Lawn accounts receivable and scheduling packages.”
Wizards, Inc., to perform all their bookkeeping functions. So off they went to see the Wizards.
Elphaba turns to Glinda and asks, “Is it possible for us to create Joel Green, the owner and creator of Lawn Wizards, is
a system of our own?” proud of his software. “I spent a great deal of time working
Glinda replies, “I suppose we could, but it would take forever. with my suppliers, that is, nurseries, in the area, and we have
We would need to define all our fields, our queries, and our reports. developed a coding system for everything,” he brags. “All the
We would need to know who hasn’t paid us yet and how long it has trees, sizes of trees, shrubs, flowers, mulch, and even lawn
been since we last billed them.” care tools have numbers.
“Yes,” says Elphaba, “and we would also have to create prod- “I started with a small firm, but when customers realized I
uct descriptions, service descriptions, and codes for everything we paid attention to every little detail, my business blossomed.” He
sell and provide.” adds, “My suppliers love my system because it cuts down on
“If that were all we needed, we could probably do it,” says confusion.
Glinda. “But we also need to include a scheduling system. We need “I noticed that my competitors were working with the same
to know when we can provide the services to our customers and suppliers but were getting less preferential treatment because
what to do if we fall behind schedule. Maybe it just isn’t worth it. they couldn’t communicate about products very effectively.
“Still,” reflects Glinda, “my mother used to say ‘There’s no So I decided I would offer my software for hire. I would make
place like home.’ Maybe there’s no software like homegrown.” money by renting out my software and demand even greater
“You see both sides of everything,” remarks Elphaba. “But respect from my suppliers. I can even deliver it over the cloud.
the path you want to take is too long and risky. We need a soft- My end-user license agreement states that I own the software,
ware package that is ready for us to use now. I hear that there are product codes, and data generated by the system.
products they call commercial off-the-shelf software that we can “Using my unique Wizards software, I can customize the
buy and adapt to our lawn service business. I’ll investigate.” So, package a bit for the customer, but essentially all the lawn ser-
Elphaba sets out to look for software that may be suitable. vices in the state will be using my database, codes, and B2B
“I’ve found something,” cries Elphaba. “I found this software features. I maintain my software. If you could see the software
called QuickBooks Pro at www.quickbooks.intuit.com, and it looks code, it would look just like a manicured lawn.”
like we can afford it. There are numerous versions of the software Now Glinda and Elphaba are even more confused than
already—one for accounting, one for construction, one for health before. They have three distinct options: create a custom pack-
services. Maybe we can find a package that suits us. If not, it looks age on their own, buy COTS software such as QuickBooks
like we can customize the generic version of QuickBooks Pro to Pro, or outsource their needs to Lawn Wizards. Help them
fit our needs. learn the true secret of (software) happiness by helping them
“Our system could grow, too. QuickBooks Pro is readily articulate the pros and cons of each of their alternatives. What
scalable. We can add customers, suppliers, or products easily. would you recommend? In two paragraphs, write a recom-
I just wanted to plant the idea of buying a ready-made package mendation that grows out of your consideration of their spe-
on you.” cific business situation.

alternatives. Included in this group are graphical judgment, moving averages, and analysis of
time-series data. Because these methods are simple, reliable, and cost-effective, the remainder of
the section focuses on them.

ESTIMATION OF TRENDS. Trends can be estimated in a number of different ways. One way
to estimate trends is to use a moving average. This method is useful because some seasonal,
cyclical, or random patterns may be smoothed, leaving the trend pattern. The principle behind
moving averages is to calculate the arithmetic mean of data from a fixed number of periods;
a three-month moving average is simply the average of the past three months. For example,
the average sales for January, February, and March are used to predict the sales for April.
Then the average sales for February, March, and April are used to predict the sales for May,
and so on.