Page 49 - Foundations of Cognitive Psychology : Core Readings

Can Machines Think? 47

knowledge of the underlying causal mechanisms of the phenomena that they
are diagnosing. To take an imaginary example, an expert system asked to di-
agnose an abdominal pain would be oblivious to the potential import of the
fact that the patient had recently been employed as a sparring partner by
Muhammad Ali—there being no statistical data available to it on the rate of
kidney stones among athlete’s assistants. That’s a fanciful case no doubt—too
obvious, perhaps, to lead to an actual failure of diagnosis and practice. But
more subtle and hard-to-detect limits to comprehension are always present,
and even experts, even the system’s designers, can be uncertain of where and
how these limits will interfere with the desired operation of the system. Again,
steps can be taken and are being taken to correct these flaws. For instance, my
former colleague at Tufts, Benjamin Kuipers, is currently working on an expert
system in nephrology—for diagnosing kidney ailments—that will be based on
an elaborate system of causal reasoning about the phenomena being diagnosed.
But this is a very ambitious, long-range project of considerable theoretical dif-
ficulty. And even if all the reasonable, cost-effective steps are taken to minimize
the superficiality of expert systems, they will still be facades, just somewhat
thicker or wider facades.
When we were considering the fantastic case of the crazy Chamber of Com-
merce of Great Falls, Montana, we couldn’t imagine a plausible motive for
anyone going to any sort of trouble to trick the Dennett test. The quick-probe
assumption for the Dennett test looked quite secure. But when we look at
expert systems, we see that, however innocently, their designers do have moti-
vation for doing exactly the sort of trick that would fool an unsuspicious
Turing tester. First, since expert systems are all superspecialists who are only
supposed to know about some narrow subject, users of such systems, not hav-
ing much time to kill, do not bother probing them at the boundaries at all. They
don’t bother asking ‘‘silly’’ or irrelevant questions. Instead, they concentrate—
not unreasonably—on exploiting the system’s strengths. But shouldn’t they try
to obtain a clear vision of such a system’s weaknesses as well? The normal
habit of human thought when conversing with one another is to assume
general comprehension, to assume rationality, to assume, moreover, that the
quick-probe assumption is, in general, sound. This amiable habit of thought
almost irresistibly leads to putting too much faith in computer systems, espe-
cially user-friendly systems that present themselves in a very anthropomorphic
manner.
Part of the solution to this problem is to teach all users of computers, espe-
cially users of expert systems, how to probe their systems before they rely on
them, how to search out and explore the boundaries of the facade. This is an
exercise that calls not only for intelligence and imagination, but also a bit of
special understanding about the limitations and actual structure of computer
programs. It would help, of course, if we had standards of truth in advertising,
in effect, for expert systems. For instance, each such system should come with
a special demonstration routine that exhibits the sorts of shortcomings and
failures that the designer knows the system to have. This would not be a sub-
stitute, however, for an attitude of cautious, almost obsessive, skepticism on
the part of the users, for designers are often, if not always, unaware of the
subtler flaws in the products they produce. That is inevitable and natural, given