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64   GEOCHEMICAL ASSESSMENT OF UNCONVENTIONAL SHALE GAS RESOURCE SYSTEMS

            3.15  MAJOR SHALE GAS RESOURCE SYSTEMS               have biogenic sources of silica such as radiolarians and
                                                                 sponge spicules. When  present‐day TOC values are com­
            The major commercial shale gas resource systems all cur­  pared to porosity, there is a positive correlation except in the
            rently reside in North America. These systems span a variety   Montney Shale that shows negative correlation.
            of geological ages and basin types with variable lithofacies.   For comparison purposes only, relative production decline
            One dominant characteristic has been the occurrence of   curves  were constructed  for each play listed  in  Table  3.4
            such systems in  Type II oil prone–source rocks.  These   (Fig. 3.17). These decline curves are purely for a relative
            source rocks all have had high petroleum generation, of   comparison  and  represent  at  best  the  P50  values  for  gas
            which the retained portion was ultimately cracked to gas   yields. Often “monster” (highly productive) wells reported
            and carbonaceous char at post‐oil window thermal matu­  in press releases are the best wells (P10), and certainly not
            rities.  The predominant shale gas systems are listed in   representative of all wells in a basin let alone averages. With
            Table 3.4. Recoverable gas estimates are from EIA (2011).  the price of natural gas being low in the United States,
              There are some distinct differences among these systems,   current wells typically only reflect the most economic wells
            but all are dominated by brittle rocks having low porosity   that are high flow rate with good return on investment. It is
            and permeability. TOC values vary due not only to thermal   important to note also that there is tremendous variability in
            maturity but also due to varying organic productivity and   the results from given wells in the same basin or even in the
            preservation of organic matter. The Montney Shale has dis­  same area.
            tinctly  lower  TOC  values  but  is  considered  as  a  hybrid   The most obvious issue noted in Figure 3.17 is the high
            system with modest source potential but more conventional,   decline rates for all systems, although the Montney Shale
            but tight reservoir lithofacies. The other silica‐rich systems   system is somewhat lower being more of a hybrid play with


            TABLE 3.4  Illustrative production decline curves with input parameters on selected shale gas resource systems in North America
            System              Period            Basin                    System type        Est. recoverable gas (tcf)
            Marcellus Shale     U. Devonian       Appalachian              Tight mudstone             410
            Muskwa Shale        U. Devonian       Horn River, NW Alberta,   Tight mudstone            145
                                                    Cordova
            Haynesville Shale   U. Jurassic       East Texas‐North         Tight mudstone              75
                                                    Louisiana Salt
            Montney Shale       Triassic          Western Canada           Hybrid mudstone             43
                                                    Sedimentary
            Barnett Shale       L. Mississippian  Fort Worth               Tight mudstone              43
            Fayetteville Shale  L. Mississippian  Arkoma (Oklahoma)        Tight mudstone              32



                                9000
                                                                                    Haynesville
                                8000                                                Muskwa
                                                                                    Montney
                                7000
                                                                                    Marcellus
                                                                                    Barnett
                                6000
                              Monthly rate (mcf)  5000  Months                      Fayetteville
                                                        12
                                4000
                                3000
                                2000

                                1000
                                   0
                                     1  5  9  13  17  21  25  29  33  37  41  45  49  53  57  61  65  69  73  77  81  85  89  93  97  101  105  109  113  117
                                                               Month
               FIGURE 3.17  Construction of relative models of production decline for comparison of major North American shale gas systems.
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