Page 388 - Hydrocarbon Exploration and Production Second Edition

Risk Analysis 375

Spider Diagram
80
reserves
capex
60
fixopex
varopex
40 timing
price
20 Spiders Web
NPV (8%) -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 -20 0 10 20 30 40 50
0

-40
-60
-80

-100
-120
% Change in Parameter
Figure 15.10 Sensitivity analysis shown on a spider diagram.

0.63 reserves -35% reserves +40%

0.52 price -40% oil price +50%
-0.40 capital costs +20% capital costs -30%
0.38 tariff +20% tariff -25%

0.30 tax +20% taxation -20%
allowances
rate
-0.15 operating -15% exchange +15%
costs
input variation
0.10 exchange from base case base case NPV
rate
-ve +ve -50 0 50 100 150 200 250
comparison of NPV with base case NPV ($ mln)
Figure 15.11 Forms of tornado plot.

specific changes in input parameter – usually determined by changing one input
parameter at a time.

15.3.4. Stakeholder analysis

Once the development team has selected the preferred development plan, a
common stumbling block is inadequate alignment with other stakeholders, both