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                                      Observed data                    State x and predicted state
                            10                                    10

                             5                                     5


                             0                                     0

                            -5                                     -5

                           -10                                    -10
                              0            50           100         0            50           100
                                      Time [samples]                        Time [samples]
                                Covariance estimate and K(k)                Prediction error
                             2                                    10

                            1.5                                    5


                             0                                     0

                            0.5                                    -5

                             0                                    -10
                              0            50           100         0            50           100
                                      Time [samples]                        Time [samples]


                       FIGURE 23.19 Kalman filter applied to one-step-ahead prediction of x k+1  in Eq. (23.94). The observed variable
                       {y k }, the state {x k }, and the predicted state  {x ˆ k},  the estimated variance {P k } and {K k }, and the prediction error {x ˜ }
                                                                                                     k
                       are shown in a 100-step realization of the stochastic process. (Source: Johansson, R. 1993.  System Modeling and
                       Identification. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.)
                                                                                              n
                       Moving average (MA) process: A moving average time series of order n is defined via y k  = Σ m=0  c m w k−m .
                           The sequence {w k } is usually assumed to consist of zero-mean identically distributed stochastic
                           variables w k .
                       Rational model: AR, MA, ARMA, and ARMAX are commonly referred to as rational models.
                       Time Series: A sequence of random variable {y k }, where k belongs to the set of positive and negative
                           integers.
                       z transform: A generating function applied to sequences of data and evaluated as a function of the
                           complex variable z with interpretation of frequency.

                       References

                       Box, G. E. P. and Jenkins, G. M. 1970. Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day, San
                           Francisco, CA.
                       Hurewicz, W. 1947. Filters and servo systems with pulsed data. In Theory of Servomechanisms, H. M.
                           James, N. B. Nichols, and R. S. Philips, eds., McGraw-Hill, New York.
                       Jenkins, G. M. and Watts, D. G. 1968. Spectral Analysis and Its Applications. Holden-Day, San Francisco,
                           CA.
                       Johansson, R. 1993. System Modeling and Identification. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
                       Jury, E. I. 1956. Synthesis and critical study of sampled-data control systems. AIEE Trans. 75: 141–151.
                       Kalman, R. E. and Bertram, J. E. 1958. General synthesis procedure for computer control of single and
                           multi-loop linear systems. Trans. AIEE. 77: 602–609.


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