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                       which, unfortunately, is not realizable as it stands because w k  is not available to measurement. Therefore,
                       the noise sequence {w k } has to be substituted by some function of the observed variable {y k }. A linear
                       predictor chosen according to Eq. (23.76) is

                                                            1
                                                          (
                                                            –
                                                                   c 1 –
                                                 y ˆ k+1 k =  Gz )  --------------------y       (23.82)
                                                         ---------------y k =
                                                                       a 1
                                                         Cz (  – 1 )  1 +  c 1 z  – 1 k
                       The Kalman Filter
                       Consider the linear state-space model
                                                   x k+1 =  Φx k +  v k ,  x k ∈    n
                                                                                                (23.83)
                                                    y k =  Cx k +  w k ,  y k ∈     m

                       where {v k } and {w k } are assumed to be independent zero-mean white-noise processes with covariances
                                , respectively. It is assumed that {y k }, but not {x k }, is available to measurement and that it is
                       Σ v   and  Σ w
                       desirable to predict {x k } from measurements of {y k }.
                         Introduce the state predictor,

                                            x ˆ k+1 k =  Φx ˆ kk−1 –  K k y ˆ k –  y k ),  x ˆ kk−1 ∈     n
                                                             (
                                                                                                (23.84)
                                               y ˆ k =  Cx ˆ kk−1,  y k ∈    m
                                                                      Φ
                         The predictor of Eq. (23.84) has the same dynamics matrix   as the state-space model of Eq. (101.83)
                       and, in addition, there is a correction term  K k (y ˆ k –  y k )  with a factor K k  to be chosen. The prediction
                       error is

                                                      x ˜ k+1 k =  x ˆ k+1 k –  x k+1           (23.85)

                         The prediction-error dynamics is

                                                 x ˜ k+1 =  ( Φ K k C)x ˜ k +  v k –  K k w k   (23.86)
                                                          –
                         The mean prediction error is governed by the recursive equation

                                                    {
                                                    x ˜ k+1} =  ( Φ K k C)  x ˜ k               (23.87)
                                                                      {}
                                                               –
                       and the mean square error of the prediction error is governed by
                                       T
                                                                                          T
                                 {
                                  x ˜ k+1x ˜ k+1} =    [ ( Φ K k C)x ˜ k +  v k – K k w k ] Φ K k C)x ˜ k +  v k – K k w k ] }
                                              {
                                                                     [
                                                                      (
                                                                         –
                                                   –
                                                           T
                                           =  ( Φ – K k C)  x ˜ k x ˜ k } Φ –(  K k C) +  Σ v +  K k Σ w K k  (23.88)
                                                                      T
                                                       {
                         If we denote
                                               P k =    x ˜ k x ˜ k },  Q k =  Σ w +  CP k C T  (23.89)
                                                         T
                                                     {
                       then Eq. (23.88) is simplified to
                                        P k+1 =  ΦP k Φ – K k CP k ΦΦ P k C K k + Σ v +  K k Q k K k T  (23.90)
                                                                       T
                                                                 T
                                                                     T
                                                   T
                                                              –
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