Page 334 - Analysis, Synthesis and Design of Chemical Processes, Third Edition

Excel spreadsheet. This number, along with values of a = 27, b = 30, and c = 33, are then substituted for
P(x) in Equation (10.10) to give

From Equation (10.10), the P(x) value for x = b is given by

Because the value of the random number (0.6498) is greater than 0.5, the form of the equation for x > b
must be used. Solving for x yields:

2
x – 66x + 1082.6964 = 0

Step 5: Once values have been assigned to all parameters, these values are used to calculate the
profitability (NPV or other criterion) of the project. The spreadsheet given in Table E10.1 was used
to determine the NPV using the values given in Table 10.7. The NPV is also shown in Table 10.7.

Step 6: Steps 3, 4 and 5 are repeated many times (say 1000). For the sake of illustration, Steps 3, 4,
and 5 were repeated 20 times to yield 20 values of the NPV. These results are summarized in Table 10.8.

Table 10.8 Results of the 20-Point Monte-Carlo Simulation